Assessing the Likelihood of Human-Induced Global Extinction: A Multidisciplinary Analysis
Assessing the Likelihood of Human-Induced Global Extinction: A Multidisciplinary Analysis Researched and prepared for PEICFA – Planet Earth Info Centre For Aliens. May 2025 Abstract The potential for humanity to precipitate its own extinction or that of all life on Earth is a critical question in existential risk studies. This paper evaluates the likelihood of human-induced global extinction through a multidisciplinary lens, integrating evidence from environmental science, nuclear physics, synthetic biology, and socio-political dynamics. We identify key risk vectors - climate change, nuclear conflict, synthetic pathogens, and ecological collapse - and assess their capacity to cause catastrophic outcomes. Using probabilistic risk assessment and historical data, we estimate the likelihood of self-destruction within the next century to be non-negligible, with a cumulative probability of 1–10% for human extinction and less than 1% for total biosphere collapse. Mitigation strategies, ...